Monthly Archives: October 2009

The growing gap between GDP and reality

Money doesn't grow on trees, but GDP says so (image credit: waɪ.ti)

Money doesn't grow on trees, but GDP says so (image credit: waɪ.ti)

Recently, I signed up for Jigsaw. If you’ve never used it, but do any sales for business, you should start. Jigsaw provides often hard-to-find business contact information—think vice-presidents at Fortune 500 companies—to subscribers. This in itself wouldn’t be interesting; other companies provide such a service. What makes Jigsaw different is the model.

The model is a wonderful example of the emerging freeconomy, as described so well in Chris Anderson‘s recent book Free. Sure, you can pay for access to Jigsaw contacts if you have the money. But if you have less money than time, you can contribute to the Jigsaw community by adding or updating contacts from your own database. That earns you points you can use to download contacts. It also helps Jigsaw rapidly grow one of the largest, most accurate and regularly updated business contact databases in the world. It’s the Wikipedia of Rolodexes.

That alone is a marvel of modern technology and network effects, what the pundits these days like to call “social media” (an arbitrary and ambiguous term, as I recently ranted in this Commune post on marketing with “social media” feeds). But what struck me as I began using this service, given my focus these days on happiness and economics, is how poorly our existing economic indicators capture this value.

The primary economic indicator in most industrialized nations is gross domestic product, which is essentially a measure of how much money changes hands. Chop down a tree and sell the wood, GDP goes up. Process the wood and sell paper, GDP goes up. That’s an over-simplification, but even in this simplified model, it’s easy to see what gets missed. Didn’t the tree, for example, which gives shade and cleans the air for no monetary value, still have some nonmonetary value? Is that value more or less than the value of the paper we made from it? Such issues are driving attention in alternative indicators of progress, such as Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness.

With the freeconomy, GDP gets even more detached from reality. Sets of encyclopedias used to sell for thousands of dollars. Today, Wikipedia offers millions of articles free, articles that were freely created. Did the value of an encyclopedia disappear because nobody’s paying? Did the value of contributing to an encyclopedia suddenly drop to zero? Did it shift to the cost of accessing the internet through ISPs? If so, what happens when we use free internet access, becoming increasingly prevalent at coffee shops and even some cities?

Strictly measuring GDP, we can’t put a value on things without price. But that doesn’t mean they’re not valuable. Tools like Wikipedia and Jigsaw add tremendous value and measurably improve people’s lives. But we’ll never realize how much until we change what we’re measuring.

The looming economic crisis nobody’s talking about

Yesterday, I attended an investor presentation for a client in health care. As support for growth potential in the industry, the presentation looked at demographic trends. One of the most important is the rapid growth of the over-65 and over-85 segments of the population relative to their younger counterparts.

The forecasts are staggering. Thanks to improving health care and public health, people are living longer than ever, and the trend will likely only increase, perhaps at exponential rates, with new technological developments. Granted, people are living healthier as they age, but as I learned yesterday, delivering quality care that prevents disease itself comes at a high cost. It’s hard to see how developments in the near future will reverse that (truly radical life extension medicine might, but likely not within a decade).

And it gets worse. As the population ages, we’re also having fewer children. Economic growth is predicated in part on growing numbers of young people who can produce and consume goods and services. Those numbers are shrinking, and the balance shifting to retirees who now must plan for an increasingly long retirement while someone (them, through insurance, or the government, through taxes primarily on young workers) pays their medical costs.

Immigration? Might help a bit. But with a growing middle class in places like India and China, will young people there really leave for less fertile pastures? Already, China graduates far more young, talented engineers than the US. As businesses grow in industrializing nations to meet local market demand, while businesses in industrialized nations shrink with diminishing labor pools and smaller markets of purchasing young people, the balance of power in the world will shift accordingly.

So the real economic crisis is on the horizon. Certainly, in every challenge, this included, there is opportunity. But if you thought the latest economic hiccup was bad, wait for the belch building in the aging belly of economies built on a rapidly decreasing commodity: youth.

Making money with free stuff (internet economics in a nutshell)

Credit: kalandrakas

Credit: kalandrakas

If you spend enough time online, you’ve probably noticed the pervasiveness of “free.” Free downloads, free e-books, free videos. Not to mention free blogs (like this one), news articles, radio stations—if it’s digital, you can probably find it, legally or otherwise, at no cost.

It’s a particularly important phenomenon if you do any online marketing. Free is an irresistable price. So if you find a need and satisfy it with free, it’s like tearing a hole in a bag of gold coins; with a bit of awareness, the traffic flows.

But traffic, as you know, isn’t revenue. Worse, it can cost you money (your time is expensive, or should be). So what role does free play in the online economy, and what role should it play in your internet marketing?

A few weeks ago, I read the excellent (and highly recommended) Free by Wired editor and long-tail explicator Chris Anderson. A thorough and detailed review of the emerging “freeconomy,” and how to make money within it, the book provides a simple conceptual economic model that can help you understand free offers and use them to build paid business.

It goes something like this: for every abundance, there is a corresponding scarcity. Online, an abundance of information has produced a corresponding scarcity of time and attention. That time and attention gets apportioned according to reputation. The greater your reputation, the more attention you can command, because web browsers use reputation as a way to determine where to direct attention.

So a key goal in internet marketing is to enhance your reputation to attract attention that you can monetize. Google facilitates the process by acting, as Anderson says, as the internet’s “central bank,” apportioning scarce attention (search results) according to reputation (page rank).

So where does “free” come in? Providing free, high-value digital bits (organized as audio, video, text or any other format) is a way to create reputation and attract attention. The further you “move the free line” (footnote to Eben Pagan for that phrase) by providing more value for nothing, the greater the reputation and attention you can receive.

In summary: free can help you get a reputation, your reputation can help you get attention, and the attention is what, depending on your business, you monetize. I’ll leave the business models for another day, but as Anderson points out, you might not need one to start out. After all, server space is also virtually free these days, so it doesn’t hurt to experiment.

Note: I originally posted this from my iPhone while riding a bus. Links and more to come, and please forgive any typos.

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